BTC price volatility is the name of the game this week as macro pressures combine with the incoming Bitcoin halving.
Bitcoin starts a new week with an uphill struggle to regain lost ground after a 15% BTC price dip.
After a weekend that decimated crypto, traders are licking their wounds — but Bitcoin is already bouncing back.
Sensitivity to geopolitics thus forms a key focus for the coming week, with commentators comparing recent events in the Middle East to the COVID-19 cross-market crash of March 2020.
So far, altcoins have borne the brunt of the snap market reaction to hostilities between Israel and Iran, with BTC/USD managing to preserve $60,000 support.
Leverage nonetheless saw a comprehensive flush, and even on Bitcoin, 30% of open interest disappeared in an instant.
Going forward, there is much to contend with — while volatility is already plenty visible, Bitcoin is just days away from its next block subsidy halving.
The stage is thus set for volatile conditions to continue as BTC price action becomes anything but boring.
We take a closer look at the current state of play across Bitcoin and crypto markets in the weekly rundown of important BTC price triggers.
Bitcoin bulls bounce back after flash crash to $61,000
It can be safely said that this weekend produced a crypto market nightmare unlike many seen before.
As news of fresh geopolitical instability in the Middle East emerged, crypto, as the only free-trading markets open 24/7, saw immediate losses.
Similar to events in Ukraine in early 2022, Bitcoin and altcoins sold off rapidly. BTC/USD saw lows of just above $61,000.
Altcoins fared much worse, some losing 50% of their value before joining BTC/USD in what is so far a slow grind back up. As MAIS Corporation reported, Bitcoin’s dominance over the combined crypto market cap hit three-year highs last week.
While the extent of the moves caught some by surprise, popular analyst Matthew Hyland suggested that, in hindsight, the signs of a flash correction were already present.
“Overall BTC still basically consolidating at ATHs. ALTs punished but I think it was to rid the market of the over-leveraged and weaker hands,” he concluded at the end of a post on X.
Middle East jitters combine with fresh Fed comments
The coming week holds a typical cocktail of United States macroeconomic data and commentary from senior Federal Reserve officials — including Chair Jerome Powell.
While nothing out of the ordinary in itself, the atmosphere is compounded by events in the Middle East, potentially leaving already wary risk assets open to additional sensitivity.
“In just a few hours, we will see the market’s response to geopolitical tensions this weekend,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its weekly diary dates entry on X, referring to the beginning of trading in Asia and on Wall Street.
Jobless claims form the key data print for the week; these are due on April 18, while Powell will speak on April 16.
Inflation remains an important consideration for traders, who have repeatedly priced out the odds of interest rate cuts coming sooner rather than later this year.
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool see the odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s July meeting at 43%, with September at 45%.
Halving week dawns with focus on price volatility
The weekend’s market volatility has almost served to overshadow Bitcoin’s imminent block subsidy halving at the last minute.
With just four days to go, traders’ attention remains focused on price rather than the seminal network event, the countdown to which has, in fact, lasted many months.
Miners are at the forefront of the changes, with their revenue streams being reshaped in an instant as “new” bitcoins per mined block drop by 50% to 3.125 BTC.
As MAIS Corporation recently reported, research sees miners upping selling pressure around the event.
Nonetheless, the latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows the BTC balance in known miner wallets staying mostly flat since the end of March.